Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 2089 at 06:53 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–34%.

Safest bet that day AA 2089 FLL 06:53 → PHL 09:35 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time Riskiest F9 4440 FLL 18:41 → PHL 21:45 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2089 American Flight history →	FLL 06:53	PHL 09:35	10%	3%	2.8%	70%
AA 444 American Flight history →	FLL 08:46	PHL 11:46	12%	4%	3.1%	95%
AA 1333 American Flight history →	FLL 10:49	PHL 13:53	18%	6%	3.9%	87%
AA 1465 American	FLL 15:24	PHL 18:26	23%	9%	1.9%	no record
F9 2932 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 13:09	PHL 16:05	32%	14%	4.2%	66%
B6 376 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:59	PHL 23:53	32%	12%	1.8%	68%
F9 4440 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 18:41	PHL 21:45	34%	12%	3.1%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON