tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:23, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Phoenix on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 65% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 441 American Flight history → FLL 06:20 PHX 08:14 15% 3% 1.5% 64%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Fort Lauderdale). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → FLL 07:53 → LAX 10:05DL 800 3h 54m Los Angeles LAX 13:59 → PHX 15:34DL 3894 · flown by SkyWest 10h 41m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → FLL 06:00 → DTW 08:56DL 2631 3h 51m Detroit DTW 12:47 → PHX 13:50DL 813 10h 50m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → FLL 09:00 → IAH 10:45UA 722 3h 30m Houston IAH 14:15 → PHX 15:04UA 1798 9h 04m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → FLL 08:00 → DEN 10:21UA 1311 2h 57m Denver DEN 13:18 → PHX 14:12UA 631 9h 12m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → FLL 10:13 → DEN 12:29UA 204 3h 06m Denver DEN 15:35 → PHX 16:35UA 1254 9h 22m 97% 80%
DeltaDetails → FLL 06:33 → ATL 08:27DL 1215 2h 53m Atlanta ATL 11:20 → PHX 12:16DL 796 8h 43m 96% 79%
AmericanDetails → FLL 06:53 → PHL 09:35AA 2089 3h 29m Philadelphia PHL 13:04 → PHX 15:12AA 765 11h 19m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → FLL 07:40 → ATL 09:33DL 1326 3h 57m Atlanta ATL 13:30 → PHX 14:18DL 366 9h 38m 97% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → FLL 10:13 → DEN 12:29UA 204 49m Denver DEN 13:18 → PHX 14:12UA 631 6h 59m 73% 59%
DeltaDetails → FLL 17:40 → SLC 20:41DL 745 49m Salt Lake City SLC 21:30 → PHX 22:11DL 1496 7h 31m 65% 54%
UnitedDetails → FLL 15:30 → DEN 18:18UA 1417 48m Denver DEN 19:06 → PHX 20:01UA 1507 7h 31m 70% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON