tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, B6 1196 at 20:35, with a 32% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
B6 1196 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 20:35 PVD 23:45 32% 10% 1.5% 68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Providence on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → FLL 05:23 → ATL 07:11DL 1168 2h 54m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → PVD 12:34DL 2147 7h 11m 96% 85%
DeltaDetails → FLL 06:00 → DTW 08:56DL 2631 1h 30m Detroit DTW 10:26 → PVD 12:32DL 3723 · flown by SkyWest 6h 32m 97% 85%
AmericanDetails → FLL 09:03 → CLT 11:06AA 2087 2h 42m Charlotte CLT 13:48 → PVD 15:59AA 2679 6h 56m 93% 75%
DeltaDetails → FLL 14:30 → ATL 16:34DL 2063 3h 41m Atlanta ATL 20:15 → PVD 22:46DL 2064 8h 16m 96% 74%
DeltaDetails → FLL 11:04 → ATL 12:54DL 1094 1h 08m Atlanta ATL 14:02 → PVD 16:29DL 2314 5h 25m 81% 68%
JetBlueDetails → FLL 10:40 → MCO 11:50B6 2548 2h 16m Orlando MCO 14:06 → PVD 17:03B6 1075 6h 23m 95% 61%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON