Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: B6 1626 at 07:52 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–31%.

Safest bet that day B6 1626 FLL 07:52 → RDU 10:14 · 16% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 2626 FLL 19:25 → RDU 21:34 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 1626 JetBlue	FLL 07:52	RDU 10:14	16%	8%	2.0%	no record
DL 1018 Delta Flight history →	FLL 15:00	RDU 17:12	20%	8%	1.5%	75%
F9 2178 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 11:41	RDU 14:11	24%	10%	3.2%	71%
B6 2626 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 19:25	RDU 21:34	31%	14%	2.0%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON