Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:33, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Seattle on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 356 Delta Flight history →	FLL 08:20	SEA 11:49	14%	4%	1.7%	81%
AS 517 Alaska Flight history →	FLL 18:30	SEA 21:59	33%	10%	2.4%	66%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 3 h behind Fort Lauderdale). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	FLL 06:00 → DTW 08:56DL 2631	3h 33m Detroit	DTW 12:29 → SEA 14:29DL 728	11h 29m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	FLL 05:23 → ATL 07:11DL 1168	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 09:50 → SEA 12:13DL 774	9h 50m	96%	81%
Delta Details →	FLL 07:53 → LAX 10:05DL 800	3h 55m Los Angeles	LAX 14:00 → SEA 16:40DL 2606	11h 47m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	FLL 07:40 → ATL 09:33DL 1326	3h 00m Atlanta	ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629	10h 10m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	FLL 07:06 → JFK 10:00DL 2165	1h 30m New York	JFK 11:30 → SEA 14:50DL 1719	10h 44m	97%	76%
Delta Details →	FLL 15:32 → ATL 17:42DL 1341	3h 53m Atlanta	ATL 21:35 → SEA 23:59DL 903	11h 27m	99%	75%
United Details →	FLL 07:00 → IAH 08:45UA 2314	3h 22m Houston	IAH 12:07 → SEA 14:53UA 2228	10h 53m	99%	75%
Delta Details →	FLL 11:04 → ATL 12:54DL 1094	3h 51m Atlanta	ATL 16:45 → SEA 19:05DL 472	11h 01m	98%	74%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	FLL 18:31 → ATL 20:39DL 2345	56m Atlanta	ATL 21:35 → SEA 23:59DL 903	8h 28m	70%	53%
United Details →	FLL 16:20 → ORD 19:00UA 403	1h 01m Chicago	ORD 20:01 → SEA 22:26UA 2211	9h 06m	73%	44%
United Details →	FLL 15:30 → DEN 18:18UA 1417	49m Denver	DEN 19:07 → SEA 20:56UA 2767	8h 26m	71%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON