Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: B6 577 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–25%.

Safest bet that day B6 577 FLL 06:01 → SFO 09:07 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest B6 277 FLL 20:55 → SFO 23:51 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 577 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 06:01	SFO 09:07	12%	5%	1.6%	88%
UA 1513 United	FLL 07:58	SFO 11:02	12%	6%	1.3%	no record
B6 277 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:55	SFO 23:51	25%	12%	1.0%	62%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	FLL 07:53 → LAX 10:05DL 800	1h 57m Los Angeles	LAX 12:02 → SFO 13:32DL 689	8h 39m	96%	73%
Delta Details →	FLL 17:40 → SLC 20:41DL 745	1h 37m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:18 → SFO 23:20DL 1091	8h 40m	91%	72%
Delta Details →	FLL 06:33 → ATL 08:27DL 1215	1h 13m Atlanta	ATL 09:40 → SFO 11:33DL 672	8h 00m	92%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON