Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: American via Phoenix, leaving 06:20, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching San Jose on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 60% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 3 h behind Fort Lauderdale). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	FLL 06:20 → PHX 08:14AA 441	2h 55m Phoenix	PHX 11:09 → SJC 13:15AA 3940 · flown by Envoy	9h 55m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	FLL 07:53 → LAX 10:05DL 800	2h 52m Los Angeles	LAX 12:57 → SJC 14:12DL 3842 · flown by SkyWest	9h 19m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	FLL 08:20 → SEA 11:49DL 356	2h 56m Seattle	SEA 14:45 → SJC 17:05DL 3897 · flown by SkyWest	11h 45m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	FLL 05:23 → ATL 07:11DL 1168	2h 32m Atlanta	ATL 09:43 → SJC 11:30DL 809	9h 07m	96%	81%
United Details →	FLL 08:00 → DEN 10:21UA 1311	1h 12m Denver	DEN 11:33 → SJC 13:17UA 1256	8h 17m	93%	78%
Delta Details →	FLL 14:30 → ATL 16:34DL 2063	3h 16m Atlanta	ATL 19:50 → SJC 21:41DL 933	10h 11m	97%	75%
American Details →	FLL 07:34 → DFW 09:49AA 1712	2h 13m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:02 → SJC 13:49AA 2834	9h 15m	94%	69%
United Details →	FLL 15:30 → DEN 18:18UA 1417	1h 12m Denver	DEN 19:30 → SJC 21:10UA 2745	8h 40m	82%	64%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	FLL 16:20 → ORD 19:00UA 403	58m Chicago	ORD 19:58 → SJC 22:43UA 481	9h 23m	70%	50%
Delta Details →	FLL 17:00 → ATL 19:01DL 1413	49m Atlanta	ATL 19:50 → SJC 21:41DL 933	7h 41m	60%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON