Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: B6 753 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 30–46%.

Safest bet that day B6 753 FLL 06:40 → SJU 09:19 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest F9 3018 FLL 17:14 → SJU 19:39 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 753 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 06:40	SJU 09:19	15%	4%	1.8%	87%
B6 1553 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 10:09	SJU 12:47	30%	10%	2.2%	60%
WN 1931 Southwest	FLL 12:19	SJU 14:58	34%	7%	5.2%	no record
B6 1453 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 12:00	SJU 14:38	35%	12%	6.4%	71%
F9 3018 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 17:14	SJU 19:39	46%	15%	2.4%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON