tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Denver, leaving 08:00, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Santa Ana on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind Fort Lauderdale). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → FLL 08:00 → DEN 10:21UA 1311 3h 04m Denver DEN 13:25 → SNA 14:56UA 1707 9h 56m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → FLL 07:00 → IAH 08:45UA 2314 3h 42m Houston IAH 12:27 → SNA 13:56UA 1533 9h 56m 100% 80%
UnitedDetails → FLL 10:13 → DEN 12:29UA 204 3h 36m Denver DEN 16:05 → SNA 17:29UA 1497 10h 16m 98% 79%
AmericanDetails → FLL 06:20 → PHX 08:14AA 441 2h 51m Phoenix PHX 11:05 → SNA 12:39AA 1656 9h 19m 98% 78%
UnitedDetails → FLL 12:15 → IAD 14:49UA 1421 3h 01m Dulles IAD 17:50 → SNA 20:40UA 2319 11h 25m 95% 75%
DeltaDetails → FLL 15:32 → ATL 17:42DL 1341 3h 17m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → SNA 22:25DL 826 9h 53m 98% 75%
DeltaDetails → FLL 06:33 → ATL 08:27DL 1215 2h 33m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → SNA 12:31DL 329 8h 58m 96% 75%
AmericanDetails → FLL 07:34 → DFW 09:49AA 1712 2h 37m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:26 → SNA 13:42AA 2465 9h 08m 97% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → FLL 15:30 → DEN 18:18UA 1417 52m Denver DEN 19:10 → SNA 20:40UA 1704 8h 10m 73% 62%
DeltaDetails → FLL 14:30 → ATL 16:34DL 2063 56m Atlanta ATL 17:30 → SNA 19:00DL 2012 7h 30m 73% 55%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON