Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 1932 at 05:44, with a 4% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1932 Southwest	FLL 05:44	STL 07:38	4%	2%	2.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h behind Fort Lauderdale). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	FLL 14:47 → MSP 17:39DL 673	2h 51m Minneapolis	MSP 20:30 → STL 22:03DL 1609	8h 16m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	FLL 05:23 → ATL 07:11DL 1168	1h 14m Atlanta	ATL 08:25 → STL 09:06DL 1400	4h 43m	94%	84%
Delta Details →	FLL 06:33 → ATL 08:27DL 1215	3h 25m Atlanta	ATL 11:52 → STL 12:30DL 566	6h 57m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	FLL 11:04 → ATL 12:54DL 1094	2h 58m Atlanta	ATL 15:52 → STL 16:39DL 543	6h 35m	98%	80%
United Details →	FLL 07:00 → IAH 08:45UA 2314	3h 11m Houston	IAH 11:56 → STL 14:17UA 2042	8h 17m	97%	79%
Delta Details →	FLL 17:00 → ATL 19:01DL 1413	3h 38m Atlanta	ATL 22:39 → STL 23:20DL 1403	7h 20m	98%	77%
Delta Details →	FLL 14:30 → ATL 16:34DL 2063	3h 20m Atlanta	ATL 19:54 → STL 20:37DL 2833	7h 07m	97%	77%
American Details →	FLL 09:03 → CLT 11:06AA 2087	1h 07m Charlotte	CLT 12:13 → STL 13:10AA 3096	5h 07m	87%	70%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	FLL 11:04 → ATL 12:54DL 1094	55m Atlanta	ATL 13:49 → STL 14:27DL 2700	4h 23m	70%	60%
Delta Details →	FLL 17:00 → ATL 19:01DL 1413	53m Atlanta	ATL 19:54 → STL 20:37DL 2833	4h 37m	64%	50%
United Details →	FLL 15:52 → EWR 18:59UA 1800	1h 07m Newark	EWR 20:06 → STL 21:43UA 2040	6h 51m	74%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON