Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1934 at 10:16 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 29–37%.

Safest bet that day WN 1934 FLL 10:16 → TPA 11:25 · 18% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 1905 FLL 19:45 → TPA 20:57 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1934 Southwest	FLL 10:16	TPA 11:25	18%	5%	2.9%	no record
B6 1005 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 12:06	TPA 13:21	29%	16%	6.7%	62%
B6 1905 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 19:45	TPA 20:57	37%	16%	3.7%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON