tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, DL 1237 at 05:20, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 1237 Delta Flight history → FSD 05:20 ATL 08:53 14% 4% 0.6% 87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Atlanta is 1 h ahead of Sioux Falls). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → FSD 06:00 → DEN 06:53UA 5701 · flown by SkyWest 3h 24m Denver DEN 10:17 → ATL 15:23UA 2806 8h 23m 98% 79%
UnitedDetails → FSD 07:35 → ORD 09:31UA 1857 3h 08m Chicago ORD 12:39 → ATL 15:39UA 2779 7h 04m 99% 74%
UnitedDetails → FSD 13:00 → DEN 13:50UA 5492 · flown by SkyWest 2h 04m Denver DEN 15:54 → ATL 20:59UA 248 6h 59m 96% 73%
AmericanDetails → FSD 07:04 → ORD 09:00AA 4977 · flown by SkyWest 1h 12m Chicago ORD 10:12 → ATL 13:16AA 2910 5h 12m 83% 59%
UnitedDetails → FSD 15:07 → ORD 17:05UA 4441 · flown by GoJet 1h 15m Chicago ORD 18:20 → ATL 21:40UA 1398 5h 33m 82% 49%
AmericanDetails → FSD 12:53 → DFW 15:05AA 2872 2h 25m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:30 → ATL 20:49AA 3212 6h 56m 89% 46%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → FSD 12:53 → DFW 15:05AA 2872 1h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:06 → ATL 19:26AA 2403 5h 33m 73% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON