Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 1012 at 05:57 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22–27%.

Safest bet that day AA 1012 FSD 05:57 → DFW 08:14 · 16% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2872 FSD 12:53 → DFW 15:05 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1012 American	FSD 05:57	DFW 08:14	16%	7%	1.3%	no record
AA 3820 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	FSD 18:02	DFW 20:21	22%	7%	4.3%	82%
AA 2872 American Flight history →	FSD 12:53	DFW 15:05	27%	8%	1.3%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON