Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 7–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 3974 FSD 13:10 → MSP 14:32 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 3890 FSD 16:20 → MSP 17:27 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 3974 SkyWest	FSD 13:10	MSP 14:32	7%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 1430 Delta	FSD 10:36	MSP 11:49	8%	3%	0.5%	no record
OO 3917 SkyWest	FSD 08:39	MSP 09:51	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
OO 3890 SkyWest	FSD 16:20	MSP 17:27	13%	4%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON