tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 15–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
OO 6442 SkyWest FSD 08:09 PHX 09:24 15% 6% 0.7% no record
OO 4966 SkyWest FSD 14:14 PHX 15:18 18% 8% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Sioux Falls). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → FSD 06:00 → DEN 06:53UA 5701 · flown by SkyWest 1h 07m Denver DEN 08:00 → PHX 09:00UA 1481 5h 00m 94% 81%
UnitedDetails → FSD 13:00 → DEN 13:50UA 5492 · flown by SkyWest 1h 45m Denver DEN 15:35 → PHX 16:35UA 1254 5h 35m 94% 79%
DeltaDetails → FSD 05:20 → ATL 08:53DL 1237 2h 27m Atlanta ATL 11:20 → PHX 12:16DL 796 8h 56m 95% 78%
UnitedDetails → FSD 07:35 → ORD 09:31UA 1857 1h 39m Chicago ORD 11:10 → PHX 13:02UA 2164 7h 27m 96% 77%
AmericanDetails → FSD 07:04 → ORD 09:00AA 4977 · flown by SkyWest 1h 35m Chicago ORD 10:35 → PHX 12:28AA 2192 7h 24m 90% 66%
UnitedDetails → FSD 17:05 → DEN 18:13UA 5848 · flown by SkyWest 53m Denver DEN 19:06 → PHX 20:01UA 1507 4h 56m 80% 61%
AmericanDetails → FSD 12:53 → DFW 15:05AA 2872 1h 25m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:30 → PHX 17:10AA 1232 6h 17m 80% 55%
AmericanDetails → FSD 18:02 → DFW 20:21AA 3820 · flown by Envoy 57m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:18 → PHX 21:55AA 2942 5h 53m 78% 38%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → FSD 07:35 → ORD 09:31UA 1857 47m Chicago ORD 10:18 → PHX 12:09UA 2225 6h 34m 63% 50%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON