Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 3466 GEG 10:25 → BOI 12:44 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 3219 GEG 14:10 → BOI 16:29 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OO 3466 SkyWest	GEG 10:25	BOI 12:44	9%	5%	0.7%	no record
AS 3219 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GEG 14:10	BOI 16:29	12%	6%	0.7%	90%
AS 2031 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	GEG 08:53	BOI 11:02	0%	0%	0.0%	100%
AS 2198 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	GEG 06:00	BOI 08:07	4%	4%	7.7%	96%
AS 2264 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	GEG 16:05	BOI 18:13	25%	2%	1.9%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON