tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: AA 484 at 05:16 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 29%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 484 American Flight history → GEG 05:16 DFW 10:55 10% 3% 1.0% 91%
AA 1381 American Flight history → GEG 12:44 DFW 18:21 29% 10% 1.1% 59%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 2 h ahead of Spokane). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → GEG 05:20 → SLC 08:02DL 1440 1h 48m Salt Lake City SLC 09:50 → DFW 13:30DL 2800 6h 10m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → GEG 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 1234 1h 17m Denver DEN 09:37 → DFW 12:40UA 1350 5h 40m 97% 84%
AlaskaDetails → GEG 05:00 → PDX 06:10AS 710 48m Portland PDX 06:58 → DFW 12:42AS 539 5h 42m 88% 78%
UnitedDetails → GEG 13:41 → DEN 16:57UA 1255 3h 56m Denver DEN 20:53 → DFW 23:59UA 2239 8h 18m 99% 75%
AlaskaDetails → GEG 05:07 → SEA 06:15AS 2065 · flown by Horizon 2h 23m Seattle SEA 08:38 → DFW 14:28AS 321 7h 21m 100% 74%
AmericanDetails → GEG 06:29 → PHX 09:27AA 2697 1h 04m Phoenix PHX 10:31 → DFW 15:10AA 3284 6h 41m 91% 71%
AlaskaDetails → GEG 07:13 → SEA 08:18AS 360 3h 55m Seattle SEA 12:13 → DFW 18:21AS 549 9h 08m 100% 68%
DeltaDetails → GEG 07:00 → SEA 08:22DL 3790 · flown by SkyWest 53m Seattle SEA 09:15 → DFW 15:13DL 803 6h 13m 89% 68%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → GEG 14:19 → ORD 20:09AA 677 1h 11m Chicago ORD 21:20 → DFW 23:48AA 2281 7h 29m 72% 40%
AlaskaDetails → GEG 09:06 → SEA 10:18AS 2069 · flown by Horizon 48m Seattle SEA 11:06 → DFW 16:56AS 341 5h 50m 55% 37%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON