tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: WN 2442 at 06:25 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2442 Southwest GEG 06:25 LAS 08:59 4% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 2254 Southwest GEG 14:10 LAS 16:39 15% 5% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → GEG 05:00 → PDX 06:10AS 710 2h 51m Portland PDX 09:01 → LAS 11:12AS 1337 6h 12m 99% 87%
AlaskaDetails → GEG 05:07 → SEA 06:15AS 2065 · flown by Horizon 1h 33m Seattle SEA 07:48 → LAS 10:29AS 612 5h 22m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → GEG 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 1234 3h 02m Denver DEN 11:22 → LAS 12:24UA 526 7h 24m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → GEG 07:00 → SEA 08:22DL 3790 · flown by SkyWest 1h 28m Seattle SEA 09:50 → LAS 12:25DL 2905 5h 25m 95% 78%
DeltaDetails → GEG 05:20 → SLC 08:02DL 1440 3h 33m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → LAS 12:01DL 1659 6h 41m 99% 78%
AmericanDetails → GEG 06:29 → PHX 09:27AA 2697 1h 39m Phoenix PHX 11:06 → LAS 12:30AA 457 6h 01m 97% 77%
AlaskaDetails → GEG 12:42 → PDX 13:52AS 251 3h 58m Portland PDX 17:50 → LAS 20:12AS 531 7h 30m 100% 76%
DeltaDetails → GEG 15:55 → SEA 17:12DL 4145 · flown by SkyWest 3h 22m Seattle SEA 20:34 → LAS 23:10DL 2949 7h 15m 99% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → GEG 12:44 → DFW 18:21AA 1381 1h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:22 → LAS 20:11AA 1771 7h 27m 71% 36%
AlaskaDetails → GEG 13:34 → SEA 14:40AS 455 51m Seattle SEA 15:31 → LAS 17:53AS 1676 4h 19m 48% 27%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON