tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Alaska via Portland, leaving 12:42, is the safest bet: 97% chance of reaching Oakland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 63% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oakland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → GEG 12:42 → PDX 13:52AS 251 3h 41m Portland PDX 17:33 → OAK 19:23AS 2082 · flown by Horizon 6h 41m 100% 97%
DeltaDetails → GEG 05:20 → SLC 08:02DL 1440 2h 43m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → OAK 11:46DL 4134 · flown by SkyWest 6h 26m 99% 91%
AlaskaDetails → GEG 05:07 → SEA 06:15AS 2065 · flown by Horizon 2h 53m Seattle SEA 09:08 → OAK 11:10AS 533 6h 03m 100% 74%
AlaskaDetails → GEG 11:40 → SEA 12:50AS 2262 · flown by Horizon 3h 57m Seattle SEA 16:47 → OAK 18:57AS 1328 7h 17m 100% 69%
AlaskaDetails → GEG 08:15 → SAN 11:03AS 673 58m San Diego SAN 12:01 → OAK 13:25AS 94 5h 10m 84% 64%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → GEG 07:13 → SEA 08:18AS 360 50m Seattle SEA 09:08 → OAK 11:10AS 533 3h 57m 63% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON