Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 14:26, is the safest bet: 68% chance of reaching Chicago on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 5623 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GEG 11:09	ORD 17:00	21%	7%	0.9%	67%
AA 677 American Flight history →	GEG 14:19	ORD 20:09	34%	5%	0.8%	53%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Spokane). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	GEG 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 1234	1h 15m Denver	DEN 09:35 → ORD 13:15UA 2329	6h 15m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	GEG 07:00 → MSP 11:52DL 1615	1h 33m Minneapolis	MSP 13:25 → ORD 15:05DL 1533	6h 05m	97%	80%
Alaska Details →	GEG 05:00 → PDX 06:10AS 710	58m Portland	PDX 07:08 → ORD 12:52AS 324	5h 52m	96%	77%
United Details →	GEG 12:37 → SFO 15:01UA 5217 · flown by SkyWest	3h 21m San Francisco	SFO 18:22 → ORD 00:25 +1UA 1958	9h 48m	97%	76%
United Details →	GEG 13:41 → DEN 16:57UA 1255	3h 22m Denver	DEN 20:19 → ORD 23:41UA 377	8h 00m	98%	75%
Alaska Details →	GEG 05:07 → SEA 06:15AS 2065 · flown by Horizon	2h 19m Seattle	SEA 08:34 → ORD 14:46AS 265	7h 39m	100%	75%
Delta Details →	GEG 13:25 → SEA 14:50DL 3754 · flown by SkyWest	2h 50m Seattle	SEA 17:40 → ORD 23:38DL 2108	8h 13m	99%	75%
American Details →	GEG 13:52 → PHX 16:42AA 540	2h 00m Phoenix	PHX 18:42 → ORD 00:22 +1AA 2201	8h 30m	93%	69%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	GEG 12:44 → DFW 18:21AA 1381	1h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:26 → ORD 21:52AA 3790 · flown by Envoy	7h 08m	74%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON