Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 663 at 05:25 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–20%.

Safest bet that day WN 663 GEG 05:25 → PHX 08:18 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 540 GEG 13:52 → PHX 16:42 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 663 Southwest	GEG 05:25	PHX 08:18	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
AA 2697 American Flight history →	GEG 06:29	PHX 09:27	11%	3%	0.7%	87%
AA 540 American Flight history →	GEG 13:52	PHX 16:42	20%	6%	0.7%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON