Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 673 Alaska Flight history →	GEG 08:15	SAN 11:03	13%	3%	0.9%	90%
WN 833 Southwest	GEG 10:40	SAN 13:40	16%	3%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	GEG 05:20 → SLC 08:02DL 1440	3h 08m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:10 → SAN 12:08DL 1296	6h 48m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	GEG 16:14 → LAX 19:00DL 3794 · flown by SkyWest	3h 45m Los Angeles	LAX 22:45 → SAN 23:42DL 3746 · flown by SkyWest	7h 28m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	GEG 17:10 → SLC 19:55DL 1503	1h 20m Salt Lake City	SLC 21:15 → SAN 22:15DL 1202	5h 05m	92%	77%
Alaska Details →	GEG 05:00 → PDX 06:10AS 710	1h 22m Portland	PDX 07:32 → SAN 10:05AS 577	5h 05m	98%	77%
United Details →	GEG 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 1234	2h 55m Denver	DEN 11:15 → SAN 12:41UA 1940	7h 41m	98%	75%
Delta Details →	GEG 07:00 → SEA 08:22DL 3790 · flown by SkyWest	1h 23m Seattle	SEA 09:45 → SAN 12:39DL 2533	5h 39m	94%	74%
Alaska Details →	GEG 05:07 → SEA 06:15AS 2065 · flown by Horizon	47m Seattle	SEA 07:02 → SAN 09:45AS 1401	4h 38m	95%	73%
Delta Details →	GEG 15:55 → SEA 17:12DL 4145 · flown by SkyWest	2h 28m Seattle	SEA 19:40 → SAN 22:34DL 2672	6h 39m	98%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	GEG 07:13 → SEA 08:18AS 360	47m Seattle	SEA 09:05 → SAN 11:49AS 1367	4h 36m	56%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON