Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 17 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 3790 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–31%.

Safest bet that day DL 3790 GEG 07:00 → SEA 08:22 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AS 455 GEG 13:34 → SEA 14:40 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 3790 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GEG 07:00	SEA 08:22	9%	3%	0.7%	92%
AS 221 Alaska	GEG 06:04	SEA 07:09	14%	3%	1.0%	no record
OO 3129 SkyWest	GEG 08:43	SEA 09:59	15%	4%	0.7%	no record
DL 3824 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GEG 11:30	SEA 12:54	17%	4%	0.7%	90%
DL 3754 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GEG 13:25	SEA 14:50	17%	4%	0.7%	84%
AS 360 Alaska Flight history →	GEG 07:13	SEA 08:18	17%	3%	0.9%	91%
DL 4145 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GEG 15:55	SEA 17:12	17%	5%	0.7%	92%
OO 3316 SkyWest	GEG 10:47	SEA 12:03	19%	4%	0.8%	no record
DL 3857 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GEG 17:40	SEA 19:04	20%	6%	0.7%	93%worse than usual
OO 3221 SkyWest	GEG 17:58	SEA 19:14	24%	6%	0.7%	no record
OO 156 SkyWest	GEG 09:32	SEA 10:49	24%	4%	0.8%	no record
AS 1480 Alaska	GEG 12:40	SEA 13:45	28%	4%	0.9%	no record
AS 423 Alaska	GEG 16:39	SEA 17:44	31%	6%	1.0%	no record
AS 455 Alaska Flight history →	GEG 13:34	SEA 14:40	33%	5%	0.9%	83%worse than usual
AS 2065 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	GEG 05:07	SEA 06:15	4%	0%	0.0%	96%
AS 2262 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	GEG 11:40	SEA 12:50	8%	2%	3.8%	92%
AS 2069 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	GEG 09:06	SEA 10:18	21%	3%	0.9%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON