Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, UA 5217 at 12:37, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 5217 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GEG 12:37	SFO 15:01	20%	9%	0.7%	80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	GEG 17:10 → SLC 19:55DL 1503	2h 23m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:18 → SFO 23:20DL 1091	6h 10m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	GEG 17:40 → SEA 19:04DL 3857 · flown by SkyWest	2h 35m Seattle	SEA 21:39 → SFO 23:59DL 2635	6h 19m	100%	78%
Delta Details →	GEG 05:20 → SLC 08:02DL 1440	3h 03m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:05 → SFO 12:07DL 902	6h 47m	99%	77%
Delta Details →	GEG 06:50 → LAX 09:42DL 3696 · flown by SkyWest	2h 20m Los Angeles	LAX 12:02 → SFO 13:32DL 689	6h 42m	98%	76%
Delta Details →	GEG 13:25 → SEA 14:50DL 3754 · flown by SkyWest	3h 00m Seattle	SEA 17:50 → SFO 20:16DL 3991 · flown by SkyWest	6h 51m	99%	73%
Delta Details →	GEG 07:00 → SEA 08:22DL 3790 · flown by SkyWest	1h 23m Seattle	SEA 09:45 → SFO 12:04DL 1412	5h 04m	94%	72%
American Details →	GEG 06:29 → PHX 09:27AA 2697	2h 18m Phoenix	PHX 11:45 → SFO 13:50AA 3199	7h 21m	97%	71%
Delta Details →	GEG 11:30 → SEA 12:54DL 3824 · flown by SkyWest	1h 36m Seattle	SEA 14:30 → SFO 16:49DL 3707 · flown by SkyWest	5h 19m	93%	70%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	GEG 19:41 → PDX 20:50AS 2407 · flown by Horizon	55m Portland	PDX 21:45 → SFO 23:36AS 2112 · flown by Horizon	3h 55m	73%	46%
Alaska Details →	GEG 15:35 → SNA 18:19AS 2019 · flown by Horizon	1h 10m Santa Ana	SNA 19:29 → SFO 20:51AS 736	5h 16m	52%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON