Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Alaska via Portland, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching San Jose on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	GEG 05:00 → PDX 06:10AS 710	1h 05m Portland	PDX 07:15 → SJC 09:09AS 2080 · flown by Horizon	4h 09m	97%	89%
Delta Details →	GEG 06:50 → LAX 09:42DL 3696 · flown by SkyWest	3h 15m Los Angeles	LAX 12:57 → SJC 14:12DL 3842 · flown by SkyWest	7h 22m	98%	87%
American Details →	GEG 06:29 → PHX 09:27AA 2697	1h 42m Phoenix	PHX 11:09 → SJC 13:15AA 3940 · flown by Envoy	6h 46m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	GEG 05:20 → SLC 08:02DL 1440	3h 38m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:40 → SJC 12:35DL 1254	7h 15m	99%	86%
Alaska Details →	GEG 05:07 → SEA 06:15AS 2065 · flown by Horizon	1h 19m Seattle	SEA 07:34 → SJC 09:44AS 1341	4h 37m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	GEG 13:25 → SEA 14:50DL 3754 · flown by SkyWest	3h 00m Seattle	SEA 17:50 → SJC 20:14DL 4100 · flown by SkyWest	6h 49m	99%	83%
Alaska Details →	GEG 12:42 → PDX 13:52AS 251	3h 48m Portland	PDX 17:40 → SJC 19:32AS 2113 · flown by Horizon	6h 50m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	GEG 16:14 → LAX 19:00DL 3794 · flown by SkyWest	1h 44m Los Angeles	LAX 20:44 → SJC 22:05DL 1420	5h 51m	96%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	GEG 11:40 → SEA 12:50AS 2262 · flown by Horizon	48m Seattle	SEA 13:38 → SJC 15:45AS 1673	4h 05m	70%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON