tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 2091 at 06:00, with a 2% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 2091 Southwest GEG 06:00 SMF 08:10 2% 1% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → GEG 05:20 → SLC 08:02DL 1440 3h 33m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423 6h 56m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → GEG 07:00 → SEA 08:22DL 3790 · flown by SkyWest 1h 38m Seattle SEA 10:00 → SMF 12:07DL 4125 · flown by SkyWest 5h 07m 96% 83%
DeltaDetails → GEG 17:10 → SLC 19:55DL 1503 1h 35m Salt Lake City SLC 21:30 → SMF 22:10DL 1582 5h 00m 94% 81%
DeltaDetails → GEG 11:30 → SEA 12:54DL 3824 · flown by SkyWest 1h 46m Seattle SEA 14:40 → SMF 16:39DL 4153 · flown by SkyWest 5h 09m 93% 77%
AlaskaDetails → GEG 12:42 → PDX 13:52AS 251 1h 11m Portland PDX 15:03 → SMF 16:43AS 433 4h 01m 93% 77%
DeltaDetails → GEG 13:25 → SEA 14:50DL 3754 · flown by SkyWest 2h 10m Seattle SEA 17:00 → SMF 18:57DL 4043 · flown by SkyWest 5h 32m 96% 76%
UnitedDetails → GEG 13:41 → DEN 16:57UA 1255 2h 40m Denver DEN 19:37 → SMF 21:12UA 2132 7h 31m 97% 73%
AlaskaDetails → GEG 07:13 → SEA 08:18AS 360 3h 28m Seattle SEA 11:46 → SMF 13:35AS 772 6h 22m 100% 66%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON