tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 2019 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record GEG 15:35 SNA 18:19 54% 15% 0.0% 46%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → GEG 12:42 → PDX 13:52AS 251 3h 38m Portland PDX 17:30 → SNA 19:56AS 574 7h 14m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → GEG 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 1234 3h 05m Denver DEN 11:25 → SNA 12:56UA 1320 7h 56m 98% 84%
AlaskaDetails → GEG 05:00 → PDX 06:10AS 710 50m Portland PDX 07:00 → SNA 09:37AS 1404 4h 37m 92% 83%
UnitedDetails → GEG 13:41 → DEN 16:57UA 1255 2h 13m Denver DEN 19:10 → SNA 20:40UA 1704 6h 59m 95% 81%
AlaskaDetails → GEG 05:07 → SEA 06:15AS 2065 · flown by Horizon 2h 03m Seattle SEA 08:18 → SNA 11:15AS 759 6h 08m 100% 80%
AmericanDetails → GEG 06:29 → PHX 09:27AA 2697 1h 38m Phoenix PHX 11:05 → SNA 12:39AA 1656 6h 10m 96% 77%
DeltaDetails → GEG 17:10 → SLC 19:55DL 1503 1h 10m Salt Lake City SLC 21:05 → SNA 22:00DL 1304 4h 50m 91% 77%
DeltaDetails → GEG 05:20 → SLC 08:02DL 1440 2h 58m Salt Lake City SLC 11:00 → SNA 12:00DL 1835 6h 40m 99% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → GEG 06:29 → PHX 09:27AA 2697 47m Phoenix PHX 10:14 → SNA 11:52AA 2454 5h 23m 75% 61%
AmericanDetails → GEG 12:44 → DFW 18:21AA 1381 54m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:15 → SNA 20:22AA 806 7h 38m 67% 46%
AlaskaDetails → GEG 09:06 → SEA 10:18AS 2069 · flown by Horizon 48m Seattle SEA 11:06 → SNA 13:55AS 1357 4h 49m 55% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON