Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 6414 at 06:26 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 6414 GJT 06:26 → DFW 09:50 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest MQ 4001 GJT 17:11 → DFW 20:32 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 6414 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GJT 06:26	DFW 09:50	7%	6%	1.0%	89%
OO 6235 SkyWest	GJT 11:02	DFW 14:18	14%	10%	1.1%	no record
MQ 4014 Envoy	GJT 13:15	DFW 16:26	14%	5%	1.1%	no record
MQ 4001 Envoy	GJT 17:11	DFW 20:32	24%	16%	9.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON