tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 4–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1945 Southwest GRR 05:28 BWI 07:15 4% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 1538 Southwest GRR 15:44 BWI 17:35 13% 3% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → GRR 07:00 → MSP 07:32DL 2913 3h 02m Minneapolis MSP 10:34 → BWI 14:03DL 2357 7h 03m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → GRR 05:22 → DTW 06:29DL 4885 · flown by Endeavor 3h 46m Detroit DTW 10:15 → BWI 11:47DL 1546 6h 25m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → GRR 06:30 → ATL 08:31DL 2453 2h 44m Atlanta ATL 11:15 → BWI 13:07DL 2711 6h 37m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → GRR 14:49 → DTW 16:03DL 5390 · flown by Endeavor 3h 53m Detroit DTW 19:56 → BWI 21:36DL 2715 6h 47m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → GRR 09:00 → ATL 11:01DL 2161 2h 58m Atlanta ATL 13:59 → BWI 15:49DL 2799 6h 49m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → GRR 07:05 → ORD 07:21UA 2099 3h 30m Chicago ORD 10:51 → BWI 13:57UA 2653 6h 52m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → GRR 10:34 → DTW 11:33DL 3500 · flown by SkyWest 3h 36m Detroit DTW 15:09 → BWI 16:45DL 2480 6h 11m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → GRR 14:00 → ATL 16:08DL 2547 1h 42m Atlanta ATL 17:50 → BWI 19:45DL 2928 5h 45m 98% 79%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON