Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 8–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


OH 5187 PSA	GRR 06:00	DCA 08:07	8%	5%	1.2%	no record
AA 5039 American flown by PSA Flight history →	GRR 13:53	DCA 15:57	16%	6%	1.3%	56%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	GRR 07:00 → MSP 07:32DL 2913	2h 53m Minneapolis	MSP 10:25 → DCA 13:48DL 2983	6h 48m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	GRR 11:34 → MSP 12:14DL 3990 · flown by SkyWest	2h 23m Minneapolis	MSP 14:37 → DCA 18:09DL 2963	6h 35m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	GRR 06:30 → ATL 08:31DL 2453	2h 29m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → DCA 12:52DL 1798	6h 22m	99%	86%
United Details →	GRR 06:00 → ORD 06:17UA 4458 · flown by GoJet	57m Chicago	ORD 07:14 → DCA 10:07UA 1077	4h 07m	92%	83%
Delta Details →	GRR 05:30 → DTW 06:30DL 4885 · flown by Endeavor	3h 30m Detroit	DTW 10:00 → DCA 11:28DL 2476	5h 58m	96%	82%
American Details →	GRR 12:56 → LGA 15:06AA 4498 · flown by Republic	2h 19m New York	LGA 17:25 → DCA 19:07AA 4736 · flown by Republic	6h 11m	100%	82%
Delta Details →	GRR 09:00 → ATL 11:01DL 2161	2h 08m Atlanta	ATL 13:09 → DCA 14:56DL 360	5h 56m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	GRR 14:00 → ATL 16:08DL 2547	2h 47m Atlanta	ATL 18:55 → DCA 20:47DL 325	6h 47m	99%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	GRR 07:01 → DFW 08:48AA 1561	50m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:38 → DCA 13:54AA 2399	6h 53m	75%	62%
United Details →	GRR 18:25 → ORD 18:48UA 5516 · flown by SkyWest	57m Chicago	ORD 19:45 → DCA 22:54UA 2160	4h 29m	69%	53%
American Details →	GRR 17:24 → DFW 19:14AA 310	46m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:00 → DCA 23:59AA 2077	6h 35m	52%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON