Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 6–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 4885 GRR 05:22 → DTW 06:29 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest OO 4622 GRR 15:14 → DTW 16:13 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 4885 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	GRR 05:22	DTW 06:29	6%	3%	1.1%	85%
YX 5846 Republic	GRR 15:54	DTW 17:06	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 5390 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	GRR 14:49	DTW 16:03	9%	3%	1.1%	67%
YX 5847 Republic	GRR 17:36	DTW 18:41	10%	4%	0.7%	no record
OO 3925 SkyWest	GRR 08:29	DTW 09:40	10%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 3500 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GRR 10:34	DTW 11:33	16%	4%	0.6%	81%
OO 4622 SkyWest	GRR 15:14	DTW 16:13	16%	6%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON