Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, OO 6013 at 06:42, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


OO 6013 SkyWest	GRR 06:42	IAH 08:48	15%	7%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Grand Rapids). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	GRR 07:00 → MSP 07:32DL 2913	3h 33m Minneapolis	MSP 11:05 → IAH 13:58DL 2673	7h 58m	99%	86%
Frontier Details →	GRR 16:08 → DEN 17:11F9 1247	3h 55m Denver	DEN 21:06 → IAH 00:40 +1F9 2996	9h 32m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	GRR 05:22 → DTW 06:29DL 4885 · flown by Endeavor	2h 11m Detroit	DTW 08:40 → IAH 10:37DL 1043	6h 15m	98%	82%
United Details →	GRR 08:00 → DEN 08:54UA 2648	2h 40m Denver	DEN 11:34 → IAH 15:09UA 1599	8h 09m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	GRR 06:30 → ATL 08:31DL 2453	3h 56m Atlanta	ATL 12:27 → IAH 13:33DL 1572	8h 03m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	GRR 14:00 → ATL 16:08DL 2547	2h 45m Atlanta	ATL 18:53 → IAH 20:04DL 2327	7h 04m	99%	80%
United Details →	GRR 15:37 → DEN 16:30UA 2745	3h 58m Denver	DEN 20:28 → IAH 23:59UA 2419	9h 22m	97%	79%
United Details →	GRR 08:47 → ORD 08:55UA 1113	3h 45m Chicago	ORD 12:40 → IAH 15:39UA 1448	7h 52m	100%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON