Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


YX 5760 Republic	GRR 06:54	LGA 09:04	5%	3%	1.3%	no record
AA 4498 American flown by Republic Flight history →	GRR 12:56	LGA 15:06	11%	6%	1.6%	88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	GRR 07:00 → MSP 07:32DL 2913	1h 23m Minneapolis	MSP 08:55 → LGA 12:36DL 2719	5h 36m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	GRR 05:22 → DTW 06:29DL 4885 · flown by Endeavor	3h 36m Detroit	DTW 10:05 → LGA 11:50DL 2589	6h 28m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	GRR 06:30 → ATL 08:31DL 2453	1h 59m Atlanta	ATL 10:30 → LGA 12:42DL 371	6h 12m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	GRR 11:34 → MSP 12:14DL 3990 · flown by SkyWest	3h 01m Minneapolis	MSP 15:15 → LGA 19:00DL 2732	7h 26m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	GRR 09:00 → ATL 11:01DL 2161	1h 29m Atlanta	ATL 12:30 → LGA 14:50DL 525	5h 50m	97%	80%
United Details →	GRR 07:05 → ORD 07:21UA 2099	2h 42m Chicago	ORD 10:03 → LGA 13:26UA 669	6h 21m	98%	79%
United Details →	GRR 08:00 → DEN 08:54UA 2648	55m Denver	DEN 09:49 → LGA 15:46UA 2446	7h 46m	91%	76%
Delta Details →	GRR 14:00 → ATL 16:08DL 2547	2h 52m Atlanta	ATL 19:00 → LGA 21:28DL 468	7h 28m	99%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON