tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Orlando on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → GRR 07:00 → MSP 07:32DL 2913 1h 55m Minneapolis MSP 09:27 → MCO 13:40DL 1208 6h 40m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → GRR 05:22 → DTW 06:29DL 4885 · flown by Endeavor 2h 16m Detroit DTW 08:45 → MCO 11:23DL 1455 6h 01m 98% 77%
UnitedDetails → GRR 07:05 → ORD 07:21UA 2099 3h 39m Chicago ORD 11:00 → MCO 15:03UA 2008 7h 58m 99% 75%
UnitedDetails → GRR 08:00 → DEN 08:54UA 2648 1h 16m Denver DEN 10:10 → MCO 16:04UA 2354 8h 04m 94% 75%
DeltaDetails → GRR 14:49 → DTW 16:03DL 5390 · flown by Endeavor 2h 35m Detroit DTW 18:38 → MCO 21:12DL 1274 6h 23m 98% 73%
DeltaDetails → GRR 10:34 → DTW 11:33DL 3500 · flown by SkyWest 2h 27m Detroit DTW 14:00 → MCO 16:46DL 337 6h 12m 95% 73%
DeltaDetails → GRR 09:00 → ATL 11:01DL 2161 1h 58m Atlanta ATL 12:59 → MCO 14:34DL 1372 5h 34m 98% 73%
DeltaDetails → GRR 06:30 → ATL 08:31DL 2453 1h 54m Atlanta ATL 10:25 → MCO 12:00DL 664 5h 30m 99% 72%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON