Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 17 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: MQ 3481 at 05:47 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–29%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3481 GRR 05:47 → ORD 05:52 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest MQ 3455 GRR 16:15 → ORD 16:27 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


MQ 3481 Envoy	GRR 05:47	ORD 05:52	8%	4%	1.3%	no record
OO 4778 SkyWest	GRR 06:26	ORD 06:36	11%	6%	1.0%	no record
OO 5674 SkyWest	GRR 05:14	ORD 05:04	12%	6%	1.0%	no record
AA 2386 American	GRR 06:54	ORD 07:03	13%	5%	1.1%	no record
OO 6365 SkyWest	GRR 10:37	ORD 10:54	15%	6%	1.0%	no record
UA 2099 United Flight history →	GRR 07:04	ORD 07:11	16%	5%	0.7%	71%
UA 1113 United Flight history →	GRR 08:47	ORD 08:55	17%	4%	0.7%	72%
YX 4780 Republic	GRR 14:41	ORD 15:02	18%	5%	1.6%	no record
OO 5709 SkyWest	GRR 10:11	ORD 10:15	20%	6%	1.0%	no record
AA 4729 American flown by Republic Flight history →	GRR 21:05	ORD 21:19	20%	5%	1.6%	67%
OO 5329 SkyWest	GRR 12:11	ORD 12:15	26%	7%	1.0%	no record
UA 2783 United	GRR 15:39	ORD 15:51	26%	6%	0.7%	no record
UA 2138 United Flight history →	GRR 13:56	ORD 14:05	27%	7%	0.7%	70%
UA 5516 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GRR 18:25	ORD 18:48	28%	8%	1.6%	51%
MQ 3455 Envoy	GRR 16:15	ORD 16:27	29%	6%	1.9%	no record
UA 4458 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	GRR 06:00	ORD 06:17	8%	0%	0.0%	92%
UA 4583 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	GRR 11:38	ORD 11:58	27%	12%	2.2%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON