Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


OH 5310 PSA	GRR 07:31	PHL 09:36	11%	5%	1.2%	no record
AA 5614 American flown by PSA Flight history →	GRR 13:23	PHL 15:22	15%	5%	1.1%	74%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	GRR 07:00 → MSP 07:32DL 2913	3h 37m Minneapolis	MSP 11:09 → PHL 14:43DL 2679	7h 43m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	GRR 05:22 → DTW 06:29DL 4885 · flown by Endeavor	3h 36m Detroit	DTW 10:05 → PHL 11:41DL 2331	6h 19m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	GRR 11:34 → MSP 12:14DL 3990 · flown by SkyWest	2h 05m Minneapolis	MSP 14:19 → PHL 17:55DL 2594	6h 21m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	GRR 06:30 → ATL 08:31DL 2453	1h 39m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → PHL 12:15DL 2279	5h 45m	98%	82%
United Details →	GRR 07:05 → ORD 07:21UA 2099	2h 04m Chicago	ORD 09:25 → PHL 12:31UA 729	5h 26m	97%	80%
Delta Details →	GRR 10:34 → DTW 11:33DL 3500 · flown by SkyWest	3h 27m Detroit	DTW 15:00 → PHL 16:43DL 1391	6h 09m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	GRR 09:00 → ATL 11:01DL 2161	2h 54m Atlanta	ATL 13:55 → PHL 15:58DL 1692	6h 58m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	GRR 14:00 → ATL 16:08DL 2547	3h 33m Atlanta	ATL 19:41 → PHL 21:42DL 1174	7h 42m	99%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	GRR 07:01 → DFW 08:48AA 1561	50m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:38 → PHL 14:00AA 402	6h 59m	75%	56%
American Details →	GRR 17:24 → DFW 19:14AA 310	1h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:19 → PHL 00:35 +1AA 2542	7h 11m	67%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON