Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 7–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3018 GSO 06:00 → ATL 07:20 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest DL 2539 GSO 16:15 → ATL 17:38 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3018 Delta Flight history →	GSO 06:00	ATL 07:20	7%	2%	0.6%	96%
DL 3173 Delta Flight history →	GSO 11:31	ATL 12:55	8%	3%	0.6%	94%
DL 3004 Delta Flight history →	GSO 07:05	ATL 08:28	9%	3%	0.6%	94%
DL 1085 Delta Flight history →	GSO 08:14	ATL 09:37	11%	3%	0.6%	91%
DL 3060 Delta Flight history →	GSO 14:47	ATL 16:12	12%	4%	0.6%	84%
DL 2539 Delta Flight history →	GSO 16:15	ATL 17:38	16%	5%	0.8%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON