Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 1078 at 05:16 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 1078 GSO 05:16 → CLT 06:09 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 3133 GSO 17:19 → CLT 18:25 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 1078 American Flight history →	GSO 05:16	CLT 06:09	10%	4%	0.8%	89%
AA 3965 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	GSO 08:46	CLT 09:44	17%	3%	0.7%	96%worse than usual
MQ 3942 Envoy	GSO 19:12	CLT 20:03	28%	8%	1.0%	no record
AA 3133 American	GSO 17:19	CLT 18:25	30%	13%	1.1%	no record
AA 5793 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	GSO 09:00	CLT 10:21	8%	1%	0.0%	92%
AA 5796 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	GSO 12:42	CLT 13:49	10%	4%	0.0%	90%
AA 5789 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	GSO 14:35	CLT 15:44	18%	13%	0.0%	82%
AA 5797 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	GSO 16:11	CLT 17:20	30%	13%	0.0%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON