tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, YX 4783 at 10:45, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
YX 4783 Republic GSO 10:45 DCA 12:03 11% 3% 0.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → GSO 06:00 → ATL 07:20DL 3018 2h 20m Atlanta ATL 09:40 → DCA 11:27DL 380 5h 27m 98% 86%
AmericanDetails → GSO 05:16 → CLT 06:09AA 1078 3h 10m Charlotte CLT 09:19 → DCA 10:59AA 3043 5h 43m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → GSO 07:05 → ATL 08:28DL 3004 2h 32m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → DCA 12:52DL 1798 5h 47m 99% 85%
AmericanDetails → GSO 07:26 → ORD 08:32AA 3673 · flown by Envoy 2h 05m Chicago ORD 10:37 → DCA 13:48AA 1200 6h 22m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → GSO 06:00 → DTW 07:45DL 5088 · flown by Endeavor 2h 15m Detroit DTW 10:00 → DCA 11:28DL 2476 5h 28m 96% 83%
DeltaDetails → GSO 06:00 → LGA 07:40DL 5292 · flown by Endeavor 4h 00m New York LGA 11:40 → DCA 13:05DL 5749 · flown by Republic 7h 05m 97% 81%
DeltaDetails → GSO 14:00 → LGA 15:42DL 5043 · flown by Endeavor 3h 28m New York LGA 19:10 → DCA 21:01DL 5724 · flown by Republic 7h 01m 97% 78%
AmericanDetails → GSO 16:11 → CLT 17:20AA 5797 · flown by Piedmont 3h 12m Charlotte CLT 20:32 → DCA 22:10AA 2432 5h 59m 100% 77%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON