Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: AA 2846 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 2846 American Flight history →	GSO 07:00	DFW 09:00	8%	5%	1.3%	84%
AA 3886 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	GSO 14:46	DFW 16:33	19%	6%	0.9%	86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h behind Greensboro). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	GSO 07:57 → LGA 09:51DL 5292 · flown by Endeavor	2h 38m New York	LGA 12:29 → DFW 15:10DL 869	8h 13m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	GSO 06:00 → ATL 07:20DL 3018	1h 30m Atlanta	ATL 08:50 → DFW 10:08DL 961	5h 08m	95%	80%
Delta Details →	GSO 07:05 → ATL 08:28DL 3004	2h 53m Atlanta	ATL 11:21 → DFW 12:37DL 414	6h 32m	99%	80%
American Details →	GSO 05:16 → CLT 06:09AA 1078	1h 26m Charlotte	CLT 07:35 → DFW 09:25AA 1005	5h 09m	95%	79%
Delta Details →	GSO 05:48 → DTW 07:28DL 5088 · flown by Endeavor	1h 07m Detroit	DTW 08:35 → DFW 10:24DL 2746	5h 36m	96%	79%
American Details →	GSO 08:45 → LGA 10:30AA 4419 · flown by Republic	2h 23m New York	LGA 12:53 → DFW 15:52AA 1609	8h 07m	98%	76%
American Details →	GSO 08:46 → CLT 09:44AA 3965 · flown by Envoy	1h 33m Charlotte	CLT 11:17 → DFW 13:02AA 2747	5h 16m	97%	75%
Delta Details →	GSO 11:31 → ATL 12:55DL 3173	3h 18m Atlanta	ATL 16:13 → DFW 17:32DL 374	7h 01m	100%	74%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	GSO 19:10 → ORD 20:22AA 4118 · flown by Envoy	58m Chicago	ORD 21:20 → DFW 23:48AA 2281	5h 38m	66%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON