Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: G7 4439 at 06:03 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 30%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


G7 4439 GoJet	GSO 06:03	EWR 07:39	11%	3%	2.3%	no record
UA 4508 United flown by GoJet Flight history →	GSO 14:37	EWR 16:35	30%	10%	2.0%	69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	GSO 05:48 → DTW 07:28DL 5088 · flown by Endeavor	2h 47m Detroit	DTW 10:15 → EWR 11:56DL 2577	6h 08m	99%	83%
American Details →	GSO 05:16 → CLT 06:09AA 1078	2h 15m Charlotte	CLT 08:24 → EWR 10:14AA 1707	4h 58m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	GSO 06:00 → ATL 07:20DL 3018	2h 45m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → EWR 12:21DL 2401	6h 21m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	GSO 07:05 → ATL 08:28DL 3004	3h 34m Atlanta	ATL 12:02 → EWR 14:16DL 2312	7h 11m	99%	73%
American Details →	GSO 08:46 → CLT 09:44AA 3965 · flown by Envoy	1h 04m Charlotte	CLT 10:48 → EWR 12:45AA 1697	3h 59m	88%	70%
Delta Details →	GSO 16:15 → ATL 17:38DL 2539	3h 57m Atlanta	ATL 21:35 → EWR 23:46DL 2527	7h 31m	98%	67%
Delta Details →	GSO 08:14 → ATL 09:37DL 1085	3h 33m Atlanta	ATL 13:10 → EWR 15:24DL 2322	7h 10m	95%	67%
American Details →	GSO 07:26 → ORD 08:32AA 3673 · flown by Envoy	1h 39m Chicago	ORD 10:11 → EWR 13:35AA 2416	6h 09m	92%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON