Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AA 3640 at 07:02, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 3640 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	GSO 07:02	MIA 09:10	13%	4%	1.4%	91%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	GSO 05:48 → DTW 07:28DL 5088 · flown by Endeavor	1h 54m Detroit	DTW 09:22 → MIA 12:28DL 1468	6h 40m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	GSO 06:00 → ATL 07:20DL 3018	1h 43m Atlanta	ATL 09:03 → MIA 11:03DL 1510	5h 03m	96%	75%
Delta Details →	GSO 07:05 → ATL 08:28DL 3004	2h 37m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → MIA 13:07DL 1332	6h 02m	99%	74%
American Details →	GSO 05:16 → CLT 06:09AA 1078	3h 02m Charlotte	CLT 09:11 → MIA 11:19AA 3184	6h 03m	98%	73%
Delta Details →	GSO 07:57 → LGA 09:51DL 5292 · flown by Endeavor	1h 24m New York	LGA 11:15 → MIA 14:24DL 1538	6h 27m	98%	71%
American Details →	GSO 08:46 → CLT 09:44AA 3965 · flown by Envoy	1h 18m Charlotte	CLT 11:02 → MIA 13:11AA 969	4h 25m	97%	68%
American Details →	GSO 08:45 → LGA 10:30AA 4419 · flown by Republic	2h 42m New York	LGA 13:12 → MIA 16:15AA 605	7h 30m	99%	67%
Delta Details →	GSO 08:14 → ATL 09:37DL 1085	3h 58m Atlanta	ATL 13:35 → MIA 15:43DL 1323	7h 29m	95%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON