Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 11:02, is the safest bet: 73% chance of reaching Denver on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 3% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 2864 United	GSP 16:23	DEN 17:48	16%	4%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 2 h behind Greenville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	GSP 07:10 → DTW 08:57DL 876	3h 47m Detroit	DTW 12:44 → DEN 13:47DL 1648	8h 37m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	GSP 08:45 → ATL 09:51DL 1619	3h 04m Atlanta	ATL 12:55 → DEN 14:00DL 957	7h 15m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	GSP 11:02 → ATL 12:06DL 2158	3h 55m Atlanta	ATL 16:01 → DEN 17:08DL 493	8h 06m	100%	80%
Delta Details →	GSP 06:00 → ATL 07:03DL 3028	1h 41m Atlanta	ATL 08:44 → DEN 09:53DL 346	5h 53m	96%	79%
Delta Details →	GSP 13:09 → ATL 14:14DL 1725	2h 29m Atlanta	ATL 16:43 → DEN 17:56DL 519	6h 47m	98%	78%
American Details →	GSP 07:00 → CLT 08:16AA 5654 · flown by PSA	2h 36m Charlotte	CLT 10:52 → DEN 12:27AA 1662	7h 27m	96%	76%
American Details →	GSP 09:00 → CLT 10:16AA 5381 · flown by PSA	2h 57m Charlotte	CLT 13:13 → DEN 14:46AA 696	7h 46m	96%	73%
American Details →	GSP 06:30 → MIA 08:26AA 3806 · flown by Envoy	1h 35m Miami	MIA 10:01 → DEN 12:19AA 2436	7h 49m	93%	70%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	GSP 17:43 → ORD 19:00UA 5524 · flown by SkyWest	50m Chicago	ORD 19:50 → DEN 21:22UA 329	5h 39m	68%	47%
American Details →	GSP 15:38 → CLT 16:44AA 5988 · flown by Piedmont	48m Charlotte	CLT 17:32 → DEN 19:15AA 3156	5h 37m	3%	2%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON