Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 3986 at 13:40 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–29%.

Safest bet that day AA 3986 GSP 13:40 → DFW 15:22 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest AA 1805 GSP 17:23 → DFW 19:15 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3986 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	GSP 13:40	DFW 15:22	14%	5%	1.0%	81%
AA 1254 American Flight history →	GSP 07:01	DFW 08:44	17%	4%	1.2%	81%
AA 1805 American Flight history →	GSP 17:23	DFW 19:15	29%	10%	2.1%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON