Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


9E 5033 Endeavor	GSP 12:48	DTW 14:43	9%	3%	1.0%	no record
DL 876 Delta Flight history →	GSP 07:10	DTW 08:57	9%	3%	0.8%	93%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	GSP 06:00 → ATL 07:03DL 3028	1h 23m Atlanta	ATL 08:26 → DTW 10:24DL 643	4h 24m	96%	83%
Delta Details →	GSP 13:09 → ATL 14:14DL 1725	2h 57m Atlanta	ATL 17:11 → DTW 19:14DL 2067	6h 05m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	GSP 11:02 → ATL 12:06DL 2158	3h 22m Atlanta	ATL 15:28 → DTW 17:28DL 1005	6h 26m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	GSP 07:15 → ATL 08:22DL 1146	2h 38m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → DTW 12:56DL 1240	5h 41m	96%	80%
American Details →	GSP 07:00 → DCA 08:48AA 5031 · flown by PSA	1h 16m Washington	DCA 10:04 → DTW 11:55AA 5660 · flown by PSA	4h 55m	92%	80%
American Details →	GSP 09:00 → CLT 10:16AA 5381 · flown by PSA	2h 12m Charlotte	CLT 12:28 → DTW 14:17AA 1683	5h 17m	95%	78%
Delta Details →	GSP 16:55 → ATL 18:06DL 3010	3h 42m Atlanta	ATL 21:48 → DTW 23:49DL 651	6h 54m	98%	76%
American Details →	GSP 17:14 → CLT 18:26AA 5440 · flown by PSA	2h 20m Charlotte	CLT 20:46 → DTW 22:34AA 419	5h 20m	94%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON