tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 4–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
YX 3444 Republic GSP 05:54 EWR 08:08 4% 3% 1.6% no record
YX 3622 Republic GSP 11:20 EWR 13:39 12% 4% 1.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → GSP 06:00 → ATL 07:03DL 3028 1h 09m Atlanta ATL 08:12 → EWR 10:26DL 2397 4h 26m 96% 86%
DeltaDetails → GSP 07:10 → DTW 08:57DL 876 1h 18m Detroit DTW 10:15 → EWR 11:56DL 2577 4h 46m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → GSP 07:15 → ATL 08:22DL 1146 1h 43m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → EWR 12:21DL 2401 5h 06m 94% 81%
AmericanDetails → GSP 07:00 → CLT 08:16AA 5654 · flown by PSA 2h 32m Charlotte CLT 10:48 → EWR 12:45AA 1697 5h 45m 96% 77%
DeltaDetails → GSP 08:45 → ATL 09:51DL 1619 2h 11m Atlanta ATL 12:02 → EWR 14:16DL 2312 5h 31m 97% 76%
UnitedDetails → GSP 07:00 → IAH 08:33UA 4049 · flown by Mesa 1h 15m Houston IAH 09:48 → EWR 14:27UA 2402 7h 27m 94% 73%
DeltaDetails → GSP 16:55 → ATL 18:06DL 3010 3h 29m Atlanta ATL 21:35 → EWR 23:46DL 2527 6h 51m 98% 72%
UnitedDetails → GSP 17:43 → ORD 19:00UA 5524 · flown by SkyWest 2h 30m Chicago ORD 21:30 → EWR 00:53 +1UA 1209 7h 10m 96% 71%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON