Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 8–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YX 4390 GSP 08:47 → LGA 10:54 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 4534 GSP 17:55 → LGA 20:04 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 4390 Republic	GSP 08:47	LGA 10:54	8%	4%	1.0%	no record
AA 4534 American flown by Republic Flight history →	GSP 17:55	LGA 20:04	15%	10%	1.4%	70%
DL 5171 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	GSP 06:00	LGA 07:59	9%	5%	4.8%	91%
DL 4994 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	GSP 10:55	LGA 12:55	15%	7%	6.5%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON