tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AA 3806 at 06:30, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 3806 American flown by Envoy Flight history → GSP 06:30 MIA 08:26 17% 4% 0.9% 89%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → GSP 06:00 → ATL 07:03DL 3028 2h 00m Atlanta ATL 09:03 → MIA 11:03DL 1510 5h 03m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → GSP 07:15 → ATL 08:22DL 1146 2h 43m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → MIA 13:07DL 1332 5h 52m 97% 75%
AmericanDetails → GSP 07:00 → DCA 08:48AA 5031 · flown by PSA 1h 14m Washington DCA 10:02 → MIA 12:58AA 401 5h 58m 92% 74%
DeltaDetails → GSP 08:45 → ATL 09:51DL 1619 3h 44m Atlanta ATL 13:35 → MIA 15:43DL 1323 6h 58m 99% 72%
DeltaDetails → GSP 11:12 → DTW 13:04DL 5195 · flown by Endeavor 1h 20m Detroit DTW 14:24 → MIA 17:34DL 2548 6h 22m 96% 69%
DeltaDetails → GSP 13:09 → ATL 14:14DL 1725 3h 34m Atlanta ATL 17:48 → MIA 19:44DL 719 6h 35m 100% 68%
AmericanDetails → GSP 07:00 → CLT 08:16AA 5654 · flown by PSA 2h 46m Charlotte CLT 11:02 → MIA 13:11AA 969 6h 11m 97% 68%
AmericanDetails → GSP 10:52 → DCA 12:48AA 5267 · flown by PSA 2h 11m Washington DCA 14:59 → MIA 17:49AA 1299 6h 57m 100% 68%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → GSP 09:00 → CLT 10:16AA 5381 · flown by PSA 46m Charlotte CLT 11:02 → MIA 13:11AA 969 4h 11m 74% 52%
AmericanDetails → GSP 14:35 → CLT 15:51AA 5805 · flown by Piedmont 47m Charlotte CLT 16:38 → MIA 18:46AA 3011 4h 11m 71% 41%
AmericanDetails → GSP 17:23 → DFW 19:15AA 1805 48m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:03 → MIA 00:03 +1AA 2090 6h 40m 59% 34%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON