Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 2176 at 06:18 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–24%.

Safest bet that day UA 2176 GSP 06:18 → ORD 07:21 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest MQ 4002 GSP 13:17 → ORD 14:22 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2176 United	GSP 06:18	ORD 07:21	12%	4%	0.7%	no record
MQ 3689 Envoy	GSP 07:30	ORD 08:37	23%	4%	1.1%	no record
UA 5524 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GSP 17:43	ORD 19:00	23%	9%	1.3%	61%
AA 4145 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	GSP 18:29	ORD 19:48	24%	6%	1.3%	59%
AA 4160 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	GSP 11:39	ORD 12:41	25%	4%	1.1%	89%worse than usual
MQ 4002 Envoy	GSP 13:17	ORD 14:22	26%	6%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON