Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AS 49 at 23:09, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 49 Alaska	HNL 23:09	ANC 07:15	20%	4%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 2 h ahead of Honolulu). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	HNL 07:01 → SEA 15:39AS 90	3h 22m Seattle	SEA 19:01 → ANC 21:44AS 582	12h 43m	99%	67%
Alaska Details →	HNL 00:54 → SEA 09:20AS 900	2h 25m Seattle	SEA 11:45 → ANC 14:39AS 1333	11h 45m	98%	67%
Alaska Details →	HNL 11:23 → SEA 19:54AS 267	2h 56m Seattle	SEA 22:50 → ANC 01:33 +1AS 703	12h 10m	97%	65%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	HNL 11:23 → SEA 19:54AS 267	1h 01m Seattle	SEA 20:55 → ANC 23:39AS 711	10h 16m	73%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON